Implied Odds

One of the things I've learned from playing poker is that players who display sophistication, subtlety, and nuance are frequently viewed as inept by players who lack these qualities.

For instance, if I'm chasing the nut flush, and my only adversary in the hand is someone who rarely protects their hand prior to the river, and never believes when their opponent makes a hand and will always call a big bet after the river, it may be worth my while to call a $500 bet with the expectation that I'll be able to acquire 5 times that amount if I do hit. In poker parlance, the odds you calculate with the expectation that you will make that amount in the end are the "implied odds", and it appears to be a concept well beyond your typical, casual player. If you can put up with being called a "donkey", or worse, it's frequently well worth the risk and effort.

Comparable situations can pop up in business. For instance, suppose you construct a demo to facilitate sales that describes the process you utilize to provide a set of services. The typical, unsophisticated reaction is to make every effort to keep your competitors from getting their hands on that demo.

But let's consider an alternative ... what are your competitors going to do if they get it?

Well, they're going to analyze your business process and poke holes in it when they're competing on a sale. Which you should already have done yourselves, so you can easily innoculate your prospects and make your competitors look foolish in their efforts. Furthermore, your prospects get to wonder why your competitors aren't open about their processes, and what exactly they're hiding, and your competitors now have to fight back against the perception of being untrustworthy. You also encourage your competitors to chase you, so while you're enhancing your own value, they're trying to match you (as I've mentioned before, exceptional companies pursue values; struggling companies pursue competitors.)

So which would you rather be ... obvious, or go for subtlety and the implied odds?